President Isaias Afewerki can call himself whatever he wants, even president. Without an election, with a never-used constitution gathering dust, without an elective assembly, it’s just all Isaias all the time.
He has fought with everyone around, including Ethiopia, Yemen, Djibouti and Sudan.
The US has an ambassador in Asmara but after two years his credentials have still not been received. His tour will end soon, probably this way.
But are things starting to change? Are Isaias’ backers getting tired of their cranky, isolated and and useless ally? These include Libya, Qatar (possibly representing other Gulf leaders who prefer to stay anonymous), Iran, maybe a shout out from North Korea. Not an A-list group.
As Israeli diplomat Abba Eban used to say about the Palestinians (and could say about Israel itself today), Eritrea ‘never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity’ to be smart.
After his monumental blunder of attacking Ethiopia in 1998, Isaias accepted a ceasefire to stop Ethiopia’s counterattack from penetrating deeper into Eritrea. Being much wilier than the Ethiopians, Eritrea negotiated a favorable ceasefire (Algiers, 2000) and in 2002 got a favorable ruling from the Boundary Commission in the Hague. Eritrea accepted the ruling but Ethiopia, which had committed in writing to doing so, rejected it and still rejects it.
This gave Eritrea the moral high ground and international sympathy, which it soon threw away. Isaias made enemies instead, abandoning the diplomatic skills that for years had won his rebel movement so much admiration.
He has now thrown out almost all foreign aid and humanitarian assistance groups, despite reports of severe child malnutrition and a crippled economy. Thousands flee Eritrea every year, particularly military age youth (service can last for decades). There are thousands in a camp in Ethiopia, where they don’t want to be — the bitter legacy of a century of colonialism and imperialism that divided a once culturally continuous region. Growing numbers are being admitted to the US. Four faiths are officially tolerated in Eritrea: traditional Orthodox, Roman Catholics (Italian colonialism), Evangelican Lutherans (a missionary relic) and Islam. All others are harassed, or worse — abused, jailed, sometimes dying in roasting metal shipping containers in the desert sun.
The UN claims that Eritrea has been helping the Islamists in Somalia in a proxy war against Ethiopia. Eritrea denies it, but it is hard to imagine that there is no fire with all that smoke. Last December, the UN approved sanctions against Eritrea.
Did the sanctions stir a change of policy in Asmara by underscoring Eritrea’s isolation? Are his sponsors, who are probably keeping Eritrea afloat — Qatar in particular — urging him to wise up? Eritrea makes most foreign investors feel unwelcome except for the recent interest from mining companies. Light manufacturing, which could take advantage of Eritrea’s capable workforce, is not in the cards. Modern mines need few and mostly skilled labor and are easier to isolate than factories that hire many low wage workers and are located in towns.
Is Isaias is seeing the handwriting on the wall? An Eritrean minister just gave an interview to VOA…a true rarity. Even more important, Eritrea accepted mediation (from the Gulf) to end its pointless but irritating military occupation of a narrow strip of sand in Djibouti. Statements about Somalia, though still hostile to Ethiopia and the US, are now no more aimless than those from other governments.
Is opposition growing inside Eritrea, invisible to outsiders but not to his intelligence sources? Little word gets out so it isn’t easy to tell. Is the food shortage so ominous that he has no choice but to consider opening up to the outside? Is Eritrea’s poor reputation making it harder for the mining companies to raise the hundreds of millions needed to develop the gold mines that are the only economic hope on the horizon?
Is Isaias now realizing the error of his ways? Or does he see a growing threat from his inner circle, which must be aware of Eritrea’s true condition and international reputation? He isn’t likely to survive an overthrow and has few choices for asylum.
For now this is all highly speculative. Yet hints and intuition suggest that something could be happening in Eritrea. The Eritrean people deserve better than they have gotten for the past two decades.
Comments
I would like to extend my deep appreciation to asmarino,assena ,harnnet.......etc for their relentless effort in informing the people on the incident of the barbaric bombing in kampala.The whole incident has a very clear message - had Eritreans not been forced to leave their beloved country could they have been the victims of sahara desert? had Eritreans not been forced to leave their beloved country could they have been the victims of meditreanian sea?.....tortured by narow minded libiyan and egyptian police? Don't tell me this is fate.However,meskere m that identify itself as a opposition main stream media completely failed to post even part of what is happening.Why? Why is it posting us victims of somalian bomb victims? Isn't it Eritean? Shame on you meskerem.Shame.Shame.Shame.
Shlomo ,here are some nice quotes which you need to learn, before you talk about opportunity :
1 .Opportunities do not come with their values stamped upon them. ~Maltbie Babcoc
2,Opportunities are never lost; someone will take the one you miss. ~Author Unknown
3. I was seldom able to see an opportunity until it had ceased to be one. ~Mark Twain
4.A wise man will make more opportunities than he finds. ~Francis Bacon, Essays, 1625
5.A pessimist is one who makes difficulties of his opportunities and an optimist is one who makes opportunities of his difficulties. ~Harry Truman
6 .Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work. ~Thomas Edison
As usual this is what is happenning, ALL ERITREANS FIGHT ABOUT THE PAST AND HISTORY AND JUST FORGETTING THAT THE TIME IS PASSING AWAY!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!
numero uno the militias you backing the Tamil tigers defeated
NUMERO DWE(TWO)
YOU HAVE DEFEATED OVER THE TINY DJIBOUTY
and then sanction, what happen to US eritrea. every one is died for one, and one is kill every one oh eritrea the die, oh esayas the killer
"An Eritrean minister just gave an interview to VOA…a true rarity. "
Unless this schmuck of a writer is from the moon, there is no way he would have written that.
Yes, you are right Isayas Afaf is wetting in his pants and he is shaking in his plastic sandals because the tiny nation of Djibouti took him all the way to the UN through IGAd, African Union and the Arab League and won big time.
The sanctions will not be lifted easily because his terrorist islamist group the Al Shabaab have just sent suicide bombers to Uganda.
Rest assured nothing is going to happen in Eritrea. As an Israeli you shouldn"t take the side of Ethiopia. It is not in our interest.
RETARDO
The diplomats were confused themselves
it is only now they are waking up......
And are you telling us Eritrea made a blunder attacking Ethiopia
because it printed its money/currency .
Gabriel G.
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